AGP Executive Report

UK–Japan Investment Push: Keir Starmer is set to agree an £18bn Japan-backed package ahead of the G7, including a £9bn pipeline and a major offshore wind push (up to 5.9GW) plus tech and nuclear collaboration via Rolls-Royce and Japan’s Atomic Energy Agency. Energy Security vs Net Zero: Defence minister Al Carns argues energy policy must be treated as a security issue, backing options like North Sea drilling and SMRs as Iran-linked shocks keep pressure on fuel supplies and prices. Russian Fuel Sanctions Tightening: The UK will end the “third-country” loophole for diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude by January 1, 2027, aiming to keep maximum pressure on Russia’s economy. Grid Modernisation (UK-linked): A UK-funded Nigeria programme unveiled a Grid Modernization Framework, with a smart-grid pilot planned feeder-by-feeder in Kano’s distribution network. Household Cost Relief: With July energy price cap changes looming, coverage highlights free/low-effort ways to cut bills, including switching support and local grant schemes for insulation and heat upgrades in England.

Middle East Energy Shock: Reports say a US-Iran MoU could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift oil sanctions, but the draft is still being reviewed—Brent is down and markets are reacting to shifting odds of a deal. UK Household Costs: RAC says diesel has already fallen sharply since the Iran conflict peak, with potential further cuts toward sub-170p; separately, Martin Lewis warns the July energy price cap rise won’t hit everyone equally, depending on whether households are on default tariffs. Policy & Public Control: Andy Burnham is pushing an agenda for public control over “essentials of life,” with claims he’d consider bringing Thames Water and parts of the energy grid under public control, alongside moves to reduce bills. Heating Rules: Government proposals would ban or restrict more gas and space-heating devices (including underfloor heating and towel rails) for new sales, tightening energy-efficiency requirements. Grid & Storage Momentum: AESC and Prevalon Energy sign a 10+ GWh strategic supply agreement for utility-scale battery storage, reflecting fast-growing demand for grid reliability and renewables integration. Macro Backdrop: ONS reports UK GDP contracted 0.1% in April, with services hit by higher energy and fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict.

UK sanctions: The government says imports of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude will be fully banned by Jan 1, 2027, with a temporary licence expiring no later than then, tightening the squeeze on Moscow’s war funding. Middle East energy shock: Oil slid and European gas prices fell after hopes of a US-Iran deal and Trump cancelling threatened strikes, with markets watching whether the Strait of Hormuz disruption eases. Shell in Venezuela gas: Venezuela granted Shell a licence to develop and export natural gas from the Loran field, adding to the scramble to monetise the country’s reserves. BP Gulf reshuffle: Reuters reports BP has started a process to sell minority stakes in its Gulf of Mexico projects Kaskida and Tiber as it refocuses on oil and gas. Policy and efficiency: Labour floated tighter rules on inefficient heating tech (like heated towel rails and underfloor heating) for new models to cut energy waste and bills. Economy backdrop: UK GDP contracted 0.1% in April, with surging energy prices tied to the Middle East war blamed for renewed inflation pressure.

UK energy policy and security debate: A new report warns the UK’s political divide on climate change is putting energy security at risk, as voters increasingly link net zero and energy bills to cost-of-living pressure. Middle East oil shock and UK growth: Markets swung on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, pulling European gas lower, while UK GDP shrank 0.1% in April as higher energy prices and Middle East disruption hit services and growth. Household bill relief push: Energy UK says 250,000 low-income households could save about £620 a year if £1.5bn of Warm Homes Plan funding is redirected into a targeted Energy Upgrade Grant for solar, batteries and heat pumps. EV charging rollout: Aldi confirmed it has moved 1,200 EV chargers across 250+ stores to Drax, with rapid charging at 62p/kWh and standard at 40p/kWh. Aviation fuel pressure: IATA warned the Strait of Hormuz disruption is driving a major jet fuel supply shock, raising the risk of local shortages and higher airline costs. Renewables jobs interest: A study finds London leads searches for renewable careers, but demand is rising in smaller UK cities too.

UK Inflation & Rates Watch: Deutsche Bank forecasts UK CPI rising to 3.01% y/y in May, with services inflation rebounding and July dual-fuel bill resets in focus, adding pressure to the Bank of England’s next move. Middle East Energy Shock: Markets are still reacting to US-Iran tensions, with oil volatility feeding into broader inflation fears after the ECB’s first rate hike since the Iran war triggered an energy-led price shock. Household Bills Pressure: Martin Lewis warns households to cut the biggest “demon appliance” energy drain (tumble dryers), as UK energy supplier debt hits £780m and millions fall behind. EV Charging Rollout: Hampshire plans about 17,000 new EV chargers (including ~800 rapid), highlighting how local delivery plus funding is accelerating UK charging access. Grid & Industry Decarbonisation: A University of Sheffield AMRC testbed (HyDecarb) will let manufacturers trial hydrogen/natural gas blends for hard-to-decarbonise heat, aiming to reduce transition risk. Offshore Wind Pipeline: A GWEC report backs fast-tracking offshore wind to help prevent future energy crises. Energy Security & Data Centres: Reporting flags the UK’s power strain as AI data centre build-outs outpace grid and water capacity, raising questions for the next phase of energy planning.

Grid Connections Push: NESO says 58% of renewable projects due before 2030 now have firm grid connection offers, unlocking 37GW of clean power by 2030 and improving build certainty ahead of the next CfD round. Household Support Watch: The NAO warns millions may be missing out on help for energy, water and broadband bills, as energy debt has surged since 2021 and awareness of social tariffs remains low. Data Centres & Power Debate: A new survey finds 89% of UK adults don’t know what data centres do, while concerns grow over their power and water use—adding pressure on local planning and energy strategy. Telecom Transition: Openreach says 1.9m UK lines still need to switch off the old analogue phone network before early-2027, with no “big bang” on 1 Feb. North Sea Update: Serica completes a $6.75m deal for additional UK North Sea interests from ONE-Dyas, adding about 2,500 boepd and reserves/resources. Mobile Connectivity Fallout: Essex villages Langham and Dedham report lost mobile coverage after a mast removal, with replacement plans blocked over landscape concerns. Energy Market Shock (Global): US-Iran strikes and talk of Strait of Hormuz closure are keeping European gas prices range-bound but raising LNG supply worries.

Middle East Energy Shock: The US escalated strikes on Iran again, with CENTCOM saying it hit “multiple targets” after Trump warned Tehran would “pay the price” for stalled talks; Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed to all traffic, raising fresh risk for oil and gas flows. Maritime Fallout: The US fired on the Palau-flagged tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman, leaving three Indian crew missing; India summoned a senior US diplomat over the attack, while the UKMTO reported an engine-room fire and evacuation. Nuclear Pressure: The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a US-backed resolution demanding Iran disclose enriched uranium stockpiles and grant inspectors access, as tensions rise after prior strikes on nuclear sites. UK Energy Infrastructure & Data Centres: A new analysis warns UK data centre build-outs are constrained by scarce grid connection capacity, pushing developers toward complex connection reform or alternative power sourcing. Regulation Watch: The UK FCA consults on simplifying climate-related product disclosures, moving away from detailed TCFD-style reporting toward more outcomes-focused rules. EV Charging Rollout: BYD plans to install thousands of ultra-fast “Flash Chargers” across Europe, with early UK deployments, as charging tech races ahead of grid and policy constraints. Grid & Market Signals: Oil prices and markets remain sensitive to the US-Iran escalation, with investors weighing geopolitical risk against tech-led volatility.

Grid delivery push: NESO says it has issued connection offers to 713 of 1,223 “Clean Power 2030” pipeline projects, unlocking nearly 40GW and up to £40bn a year in clean investment, as the UK tries to speed up transmission and distribution upgrades. EV charging politics: New research warns a proposed pay-per-mile tax could deter EV buyers, with 31% of motorists put off by the 2028 plan; separately, the government is “reviewing” public charging costs to cut what drivers pay. Ultra-fast charging arrives: BYD plans 300 five-minute “flash” chargers in the UK by year-end (600 by 2027), aiming to charge as fast as petrol filling. Renewables dealmaking: Gülermak Renewables signs a 10-year CfD-backed PPA for a 49.5MW Essex solar project, while offshore wind operators turn to AI for predictive maintenance. Battery innovation: EQONIC wins a place in the UK’s £452m Battery Innovation Programme to scale digital-twin-driven battery manufacturing. Policy pressure on net zero: Reports say Ed Miliband’s £63bn net zero “war chest” could face defence-driven budget cuts, putting carbon capture and hydrogen funding in the spotlight. Energy security at sea: A fire on an oil tanker off Oman leaves one sailor dead and two missing, with Strait of Hormuz tensions still a key risk.

AI for green gas: BiofuelAi won a £1m Manchester Prize for using AI to help UK biogas plants make smarter operating decisions, boosting renewable gas output and cutting costs and emissions. Household support gap: The National Audit Office warns millions of UK households are missing social tariffs for energy and other essentials as debt rises above £7bn, with awareness low among eligible customers. EV charging race: BYD says it will roll out 300 ultra-rapid 1500kW Flash chargers in the UK by end-2027, aiming for dense motorway coverage and claiming very fast charging for compatible models. North Sea politics: An offshore expert warns Britain has “taken the North Sea for granted”, arguing the UK’s oil and gas policy has become a “political football” while Norway’s framework better supports investment and jobs. Energy-market nerves: European natural gas prices edged down as Israel-Iran tensions eased but traders stayed cautious, with supply improving via recovered Norwegian output. Construction cash crunch: Research says 86% of UK construction firms are in trouble or expect serious distress within months, driven by late payments and worsening cashflow. North Sea CCS milestone: Spirit Energy says its Morecambe Net Zero Peak Cluster has entered the Assess Phase for a carbon storage licence, moving the cement decarbonisation project closer to permits. AI skills push: The government launched a £200m fund to upskill businesses and accelerate AI adoption, including matching investment for UK firms.

UK Solar Finance: Qair has reached financial close on its first UK solar PV project, the 46.51MWp Brecks Solar Farm in Nottinghamshire, securing senior debt from BayernLB and a CfD from Allocated Round 7; construction is set to start this month with operations due in Q2 2027. Grid & Hydrogen Support: In the Humber, Kelton is expanding flow-measurement support with OSL Consulting Engineers to back hydrogen production, storage and carbon capture projects, focusing on accurate, traceable metering for fast-evolving regulatory needs. Carbon Capture Milestone: Spirit Energy’s Morecambe Net Zero Peak Cluster has entered the NSTA “Assess Phase” for its carbon storage licence, moving closer to permits to store about one billion tonnes of CO2 in depleted Morecambe fields. Energy Security Debate: A campaign group, Mothers Rise Up, protested at Lloyd’s of London urging insurers to stop underwriting new fossil gas projects in the Coral Triangle, citing risks to reefs and UK-linked national security concerns. Supply Chain Pressure on Homes: Bellway warned higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict are raising building input costs and cooling demand, forcing builders to renegotiate supply chains. Offshore Wind Planning: A formal UK notice has been issued for Dogger Bank South offshore wind farms (East and West), seeking development consent under the EIA planning framework.

North Sea policy pressure: BP says it will invest in the UK’s North Sea only if ministers scrap or cut heavy windfall taxes, while Offshore Energies UK says operators could put £17.5bn into new oil and gas projects if the tax burden eases. Energy-market shock: Fitch cut its global growth forecast to 2.4% for 2026, blaming the oil shock from the US-Iran conflict and the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, which is lifting Brent assumptions and feeding through to inflation and spending. Gas and power transition: Ember reports gas is losing electricity market share for a fifth straight year, as more countries shift toward renewables and Middle East supply concerns cloud gas demand. Household cashflow: Ofgem data suggests millions of UK households have energy credit to reclaim, with the average fixed direct-debit payer sitting on about £212 in surplus. Grid and investment headwinds: The Crown Estate is set to re-bid an Irish Sea offshore wind lease after partners backed out, citing no CfD award and rising costs. Safety and compliance: Teledyne Gas and Flame Detection says updated IMO rules now broaden enclosed-space gas testing to include carbon dioxide, with production in Renfrew. Heatwave retail lift: May’s UK retail sales rose 3.7% year-on-year as hot weather drove spending on barbecues, fans and summer essentials.

Bio-methane push: Gasrec has filed plans for a new high-capacity public bio-methane facility and refuelling station in Spalding, aiming to open by late 2026—positioned as East Anglia’s first public bio-LNG refuel site to help fleets move off diesel. BP tax spotlight: BP says it paid £1.2bn in UK taxes in 2025, including £422m via the energy profits levy, as the Government moves to close a loophole on oil and gas overseas trading profits. Battery storage reshuffle: CIP will sell minority stakes in Scotland’s 500MW/1,000MWh Devilla BESS to the Scottish National Investment Bank and the Nuclear Liabilities Fund, while Fidra Energy has acquired the 1,025MW Enderby BESS project in Leicestershire. Fuel-price hit: UK drivers are estimated to have paid £1.7bn more at the pump since the Iran conflict disrupted oil flows, with petrol and diesel running costs rising versus EVs. Household energy bills: Ofgem’s price cap is set to rise 13% from July 1, and households are being urged to unplug “vampire” chargers to cut small but persistent electricity use. Aviation carbon fight: Major airlines, including British Airways-owner IAG, warn the EU against extending ETS carbon pricing to extra-EEA international flights, saying it will raise fares. Local energy transition: Coventry Airport will close permanently on June 11 after 90 years, with the site earmarked for Greenpower Park and vehicle battery manufacturing/recycling.

Nuclear security: Russia hit Ukraine’s Chernobyl exclusion-zone fuel storage facility, partially destroying the spent-fuel reception building; Ukraine says radiation stayed within safe limits, but the strike raises pressure on air defence ahead of UK-led talks. Defence and energy policy clash: A Labour MP branded the government’s Net Zero plan “insane” and called for Ed Miliband to be sacked, arguing North Sea gas and oil licences are being withheld while jobs are exported. UK energy market pressure: Deutsche Bank warns the Iran conflict is feeding an “energy shock” that will squeeze UK household incomes and business costs, with GDP growth slowing sharply in 2026. Gas and LNG flows: US LNG deliveries to Europe fell in May while Asia took more; meanwhile US gas storage added less than expected and stocks slipped below 2025 levels. Data-centre power debate: A new report highlights plans for over 100 UK data centres using gas generation, adding to concerns about emissions and grid strain as AI demand grows. Aviation fuel gap: IATA says Sustainable Aviation Fuel output remains far below what’s needed for net zero by 2050, with SAF still a tiny share of total fuel use.

Grid Upgrade Risks: A UK opinion piece warns that upgrading the electricity grid for Clean Power 2030 must avoid “HS2-style” systems-integration failures, or operators won’t be able to flex fast enough as EVs, solar and storage proliferate. Heat Pumps Demand: Bernstein says heat pumps could be a major, underappreciated driver of UK electricity demand growth—adding roughly 8–22TWh a year by 2035 and pushing peak load up by 8–21GW over the next decade. Household Costs: Ofgem’s upcoming price cap rise is set to lift costs for electric heated towel rails, with one estimate putting bills around £57 from July 1. Wind O&M Expansion: OEG buys Hybrid Resource Management to add 80+ technicians and expand onshore/offshore wind operations and maintenance capacity. Oil & Gas Pressure: Oil prices slipped on hopes for US-Iran de-escalation, but LNG and jet-fuel tightness remain a live risk for energy and transport costs. Energy Security Context: Neso forecasts electricity spikes up to 800MW during England/Scotland World Cup games, driven by millions of TVs and kettles.

Ofgem Price-Cap Maths: Ofgem says it’s changing how it calculates the “typical” gas-and-electricity bill, cutting the October headline figure by about £190 (to ~£1,709) because assumed household usage has fallen—while warning the change could be misread as cheaper energy; prices still rise 13% for a typical Direct Debit household from 1 July to 30 September 2026. Middle East Oil Shock: Iran’s crude exports reportedly plunged to a six-year low in May (about 209,000 bpd) after a US naval blockade, stripping Tehran of roughly $6bn in revenue and keeping global oil-market nerves high; oil prices also swung as traders weighed US-Iran de-escalation hopes against ongoing Strait of Hormuz risk. UK Energy Demand Pressure: Scotland is facing a surge in electricity demand from hyperscale data centres, with campaigners warning planning applications could push totals to over 11,000MW—far above winter peak—raising grid and community concerns. Hydrogen Aviation Milestone: Swansea University researchers helped Rolls-Royce and easyJet run a modern aero engine on 100% hydrogen at full take-off power, a major step for zero-carbon flight. Grid Contract Politics (Outside UK): Guyana’s government finally broke silence on ongoing Karpowership power contract renewal talks, after public pressure over emergency grid supply risk.

UK net-zero policy and costs: Campaigners warn Labour’s EV rules have been weakened, saying extra petrol/diesel miles could add 17m tonnes of CO2 by 2030, undermining the shift away from combustion. Household pressure: The DWP confirmed June benefit payment dates as Ofgem’s energy price cap is set to rise by £221 to £1,862 from July, adding strain for already stretched families. Sanctions and energy supply chains: Russia’s deputy PM says the UK is still buying Russian oil via petroleum products refined in Asia, highlighting how sanctions reshape trade routes. Nuclear security: The IAEA Board of Governors met to discuss attacks on nuclear facilities in the UAE. Industrial and trade friction: Ireland faces renewed scrutiny over alumina exports from the Russian-owned Aughinish plant, with reports showing most exports going to Russia in Q1 2026. Energy transition investment: UK renewables and grid planning continue to draw attention, including debate over how policy and execution will match ambitious emissions targets. Data centre backlash: Protests are building against a proposed 600MW AI data centre near a small Scottish village, with locals citing major power and water demands.