AGP Executive Report

Market and Bills: The IMF raised its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%, but expects growth to slow to 1.2% next year as higher energy prices and interest rates weigh on households and businesses. It sees inflation staying above target through 2027. Supply Risks: Oil prices remain volatile as attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping threats around the Strait of Hormuz unsettle markets. UK and US officials discussed Hormuz security and efforts to stabilise energy markets. BP’s Retreat: BP expects $3bn–$4.5bn in third-quarter write-downs, mainly in its gas and low-carbon businesses, as it scales back transition spending. Clean Power: GB Energy is poised to keep investing in Scotland’s floating wind projects, while EDF has agreed to buy RWE’s stake in the 1.1GW Five Estuaries offshore wind farm. The UK has also approved the 600MW Steeple renewables project in Nottinghamshire.

Energy Storage: Nixon Hire is investing more than £1m in battery units for hire, with early customer use cutting fuel costs and emissions. Hydrogen: Sheffield-based ITM Power says a proposed 150MW electrolyser project for a European refinery could become its largest commercial commitment; a final investment decision is targeted for 2027. Winter Pressures: UK gas prices have climbed to their highest since 2022, as households prepare for colder weather and warnings of tight European supplies sharpen concern over bills. Oil Market: Brent rose above $106 a barrel amid tanker attacks and Middle East tensions, adding to fuel-cost risks for UK businesses and consumers. EU Cooperation: UK and EU leaders will meet in Brussels on 20 November, with energy and climate among the topics on the agenda as Prime Minister Andy Burnham pushes for closer ties.

Oil and Security: Tanker attacks near Oman and the Strait of Hormuz kept crude above $100 a barrel, adding to supply risks for UK consumers and businesses. Household Bills: Citizens Advice is urging the government to raise the Warm Home Discount to £560 for around two million households; eligible customers currently receive £150. Industry Costs: UK business inflation hit a three-year high in September, with energy, fuel and raw-material costs squeezing firms as demand weakened. Clean Energy: The transition is expected to need more than £500bn of investment by 2040, but stalled floating-wind projects threaten Scottish port plans and energy jobs. Ukraine: The UK backed Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire, but Kyiv reported fresh Russian strikes on power facilities, casting doubt on whether it will hold.

Grid Bottlenecks: Octopus Energy says Britain has spent £1.5bn paying wind farms to switch off while gas plants supply power, with constraint costs forecast to reach £3.2bn by July 2027. Winter Security: UK gas storage is near record lows, prompting warnings the country could run short this winter as households face higher bills. Household Costs: Typical incomes are £2,900 lower than they would have been after five years of the cost-of-living crisis; poorer families were still spending 57% more in real terms on energy at the crisis peak. Clean-Energy Investment: More than £500bn of investment is needed by 2040 to meet the UK’s clean-power ambitions, while Scotland’s floating-wind sector faces uncertainty over contracts. Supply Risks: Repeated tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz are heightening concerns over global energy flows and price pressures.

Household Bills: Ofgem’s price cap rose 4% to £1,723 a year from October, adding about £60 for a typical household. Higher wholesale gas prices linked to the Iran conflict are driving the increase, while a report warns Britain could face a gas shortfall this winter. North Sea: BP says there is “lots of interest” in its UK North Sea business, which it plans to sell as part of a wider asset-sale drive. Scotland’s Floating Wind: Developers are bracing to return more ScotWind leases as cost pressures threaten projects and the sector’s promised growth. Clean Energy: Bristol Airport says on-site renewables generated 20% more power this year, enough to supply about 680 homes, and a new offshore platform in Liverpool Bay is ready to support carbon storage for the HyNet project. Climate Policy: Debate over scrapping future standards for new homes highlights the stakes: energy-efficient design could cut bills, while retrofits are likely to cost more.

Supply Risks: Attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, with 11 commercial vessels hit since early October and captains reportedly offered up to $100,000 a month to sail the route. The disruption is adding pressure to oil markets as Britain also faces warnings that gas supplies could run short this winter. Household Bills: Cornwall Insight forecasts a 16% rise in the typical annual energy bill in January, to nearly £2,000, after the price cap rose to £1,723 in October. Some suppliers are offering debt relief, while further household support is being discussed ahead of the Budget. Industry Costs: UK manufacturers can apply for up to 25% off power bills, but retailers are forecast to face a £440 million increase in electricity costs this year. Energy Policy: Britain says it will maintain sanctions pressure on Russia despite a US deal to buy Russian diesel. Ofgem has also announced £16.2 million for energy network projects, while a new solar farm has secured government consent.

Gas Supply: A new warning says Britain risks running short of gas this winter, with storage near record lows, putting energy security and household bills back in focus. Wind Power: The Ministry of Defence says a proposed 23-turbine Yorkshire Dales wind farm could interfere with military radar, setting up a clash between renewable development and defence concerns. Energy Costs: Oil’s surge amid Gulf shipping attacks has pushed UK borrowing costs to multi-decade highs; Plaid Cymru’s Ben Lake is also urging fuel-duty relief for rural Wales, where households face steep transport and heating-fuel costs. Industry Support: UK manufacturers can apply for discounts of up to 25% on power bills, alongside a first-year payment. Household Help: Eligible Scottish households are due an automatic £62 Winter Heating Payment from December.

Grid and renewables: Ofgem has awarded £16.2 million to energy-network projects, as the grid connection queue remains four times larger than the clean-power target. RES has also won approval for a 450MW Nottinghamshire solar farm with 150MW of battery storage. Winter gas security: A report warns Britain could face a gas shortage by the end of winter, with storage near record lows raising concern over supply and household bills. Energy suppliers: E.ON Next has completed its takeover of OVO, leaving the UK with three major suppliers. Oil and prices: Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil above $105 a barrel, adding to energy-market jitters; prices eased after Donald Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the US midterm elections.

Oil and Gas Prices: Brent briefly topped $105 a barrel as attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz raised supply fears, then eased to around $103 after Donald Trump ruled out a US strike on Iran before November’s midterms. UK natural gas prices also climbed to a three-week high, with storage near record lows adding to winter supply concerns. Energy Security: Britain announced new sanctions targeting 38 Russian oil companies, tankers and military suppliers, widening pressure on the country’s oil trade and shadow fleet. Great British Energy: The publicly owned company opened its headquarters in Aberdeen, placing its base in a city central to the UK’s energy sector. Clean Power: The UK grid connection queue is reported to be four times larger than the clean-power target, while concerns over floating-wind costs and technology threaten Scotland’s ambitions to lead the sector. Energy Retail: E.ON Next’s planned purchase of Ovo would leave Britain with three major household energy suppliers.

Oil & Security: Fresh tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil above $100 a barrel, adding pressure to UK energy costs; prices briefly fell after Donald Trump said the US would not attack Iran before November’s elections. Russia Sanctions: Britain imposed 38 new measures against oil firms, shadow-fleet vessels and military suppliers, saying sanctions now cover more than 90% of Russia’s oil production capacity. Clean Power: Ministers approved the 500MW Green Hill solar farm, expected to power about 200,000 homes. But the Ministry of Defence says a proposed 23-turbine wind farm in Yorkshire could disrupt RAF radar and air defence. North Sea: Equinor warned it could halt UK investment if the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields are not approved, sharpening a dispute over future oil and gas development. Energy Market: E.ON’s takeover of Ovo leaves nearly three-quarters of Great Britain’s households with just three suppliers, renewing concerns about consumer choice as bills and businesses’ energy costs remain under pressure.

Oil and Fuel: Brent crude climbed above $102 a barrel as attacks on tankers near Qatar and in the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply fears. UK drivers can now compare live petrol and diesel prices on Google Maps, with the government estimating savings of about £40 a year. Household Bills: The Chancellor is weighing up to £1bn in Budget support for energy bills, while Octopus Energy says it will continue providing free electric blankets to customers in need. North Sea Investment: Equinor warned that blocking Rosebank and Jackdaw could deter future UK investment, as the government faces pressure over the sector’s role in jobs and energy supply. Renewables and Industry: Scotland’s floating offshore wind ambitions face mounting cost, grid and planning hurdles, with industry leaders warning the chance to build a domestic supply chain is narrowing. UK manufacturers, meanwhile, are paying £11bn more for energy than US rivals, according to a new report. Consumer Protection: Energy scams are costing people in Scotland more than £5,000 a week, Trading Standards Scotland warns, amid widespread concern about winter bills.

Fuel and Bills: Brent crude has topped $100 a barrel amid attacks and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA is accelerating an emergency oil-stock release, with about 100 million barrels still to reach markets. UK diesel is near £2 a litre, reviving calls for a 50mph motorway limit; the fuel savings remain uncertain. Household Support: A £63 electricity payment is due to roll out, while ministers are considering raising the Warm Home Discount from £150 to £250 as bills rise. Grid and Demand: Holyrood committees will examine plans for more than 20 AI data centres in Scotland, including their impact on power demand and resilience. Low-Carbon Industry: A new UK ammonia roadmap targets replacing current demand with low-carbon supply by 2036, potentially unlocking £1.5bn in investment and 5,000 jobs, but says policy support is still lacking. Energy Investment: Equinor warns that blocking proposed North Sea projects could deter investment, while a High Court ruling against a coal-mine expansion sharpens the debate over climate impacts and future supply.

UK Energy Policy & Bills: The DWP is considering raising the Warm Home Discount from £150 to £250, but a separate DWP age-rule change could leave some people missing the £150 support. Household Impact: Northern Ireland schools face a sharp jump in energy costs, with school gas bills forecast to rise 60% and electricity 5% by March 2027, prompting “wear more clothes” guidance. Consumer Watchdog: Ofgem’s October–December price cap is set to rise to £1,723 a year, and a BBC expert warned that gadgets claiming to cut bills by up to £130 may be misleading. Energy Security & Markets: Oil prices climbed as Iran-linked attacks and Strait of Hormuz risks intensified, with UK Maritime Trade Operations reporting nine incidents so far this month. Planning & Fossil Fuel Legal Pressure: Australia’s High Court ruling on NSW coal mines’ overseas “scope 3” emissions is being hailed as a game changer and could reshape fossil-fuel approvals. Renewables & Nature: A Scotland poll says offshore wind should avoid harming wildlife, with 79% backing projects away from important habitats. Solar vs Farmland: A senior Tory is pushing a private members’ bill to ban solar farms on prime agricultural land.

North Sea energy politics: Equinor boss Anders Opedal warns the UK could be seen as “un-investable” if Rosebank and Jackdaw are not approved to restart, arguing it would undermine energy security and jobs. Grid pressure from AI: A new report says AI data centres are driving a step-change in power demand, with developers hunting for “available power” as UK grids face growing strain. Middle East shipping risk: UKMTO says multiple tanker attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz have continued, including a projectile strike causing an engine-room fire, keeping oil and fuel markets jumpy. Markets and fuel costs: London stocks edged up as Brent slipped back below $100, but diesel prices remain a concern for UK consumers amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Battery storage momentum: Canadian Solar/e‑STORAGE is set to supply a 100MW/200MWh solar-plus-storage battery system for OX2 in Australia, highlighting how storage is becoming central to hybrid power plans. Sustainable buildings: BRE announced winners of the BREEAM Awards 2026, including a major refurbishment at Lambeth Palace that cut modelled primary energy use by 77%.

Electricity security: National Energy System Operator (Neso) issued a “margin notice” for Tuesday’s peak, asking the market for more back-up generation; it stressed there’s no risk to customer supplies and no need for action. Northern Ireland bills: SSE disclosed it took an £80m windfall dividend from its NI electricity supply business after record profits, as the Consumer Council warns many households face around £2,000 a year for gas and power. Fuel price pressure in Scotland: RAC data shows diesel at record highs on Scottish islands, with some forecourts above 220p/litre, underlining how distance and competition hit island life hardest. North Sea policy fight: Energy chiefs urged Andy Burnham’s government to use the upcoming Budget to protect investor confidence, including calls to bring forward reforms to the energy profits levy. Nuclear devolution row: A UK energy minister said Labour won’t override Holyrood to force new nuclear reactors in Scotland. North Sea costs: The NSTA reported UKCS unit operating costs fell 9% per barrel in 2025, helped by efficiency gains and new fields. Oil & shipping risk: UKMTO reported a projectile strike damaging a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, with more attacks reported as security deteriorates. Household support: The Warm Home Discount scheme reopens in October, offering eligible pensioners a £150 electricity bill reduction.

G7 Diesel Release & UK Energy Costs: Japan says it won’t add extra releases beyond the G7’s coordinated 100m-barrel drawdown via the IEA, aimed at easing diesel prices after delays in European strategic releases. Hormuz Shipping Risk: UKMTO reports a tanker turned back after IRGC threats, while separate reports say crude and LPG tankers were hit or targeted by projectiles—keeping pressure on global oil and fuel markets. UK Power Bills Help: Suppliers are pushing winter schemes that pay households for shifting electricity use, as Ofgem’s price cap rises and forecasts point toward another jump. Grid & Heat Network Upgrade: Manchester’s 40-metre “Tower of Light” CHP heat network is powering major civic landmarks via a 2km underground pipe system, highlighting low-carbon district heating momentum. Policy Fight on New Homes: A thinktank warns Tory plans to cut the Future Homes Standard could cost new owners about £1,000 a year in extra running costs. Ofgem Leadership: Ofgem appoints Tim Jarvis as permanent boss, a key signal for UK regulation ahead of volatile energy markets. Green Party Nuclear U-turn: Green Party members drop blanket opposition to nuclear, moving to case-by-case assessment alongside renewables. North Sea Gas Infrastructure: Cadent begins an 11-week gas pipe replacement project, citing methane cuts and enabling more renewable gases like biomethane.